January 8th, 2010
Market Report For January 2010
Information from Idaho Data Providers
Idaho Data Providers Market Report - January 2010
· Complete Foreclosure Numbers for 2009
· 2010 Starting With A Record Level of Distressed Properties
· Real Estate Market Forecast for 20102010 Market Forecast
Nationally, although the government stimulus payments for buyers and record low interest rates have recently given the appearance that the housing market has reached the bottom and is recovering, this is not the case. The trifecta of: (1) continued high unemployment; (2) nearly 30% of all borrowers upside down on their mortgages and; (3) an increasing serious default rate (60+ days delinquent) on loans not yet in foreclosure that is triple the number of loans already in foreclosure (9% versus 3%) means a continued, constant and record stream of distressed properties entering the foreclosure pipeline and keeping inventory levels abnormally high in 2010
Government efforts to stem the foreclosure tide through its loan modification program (HAMP), have failed miserably and there are no other real solutions on the drawing board to stop or prevent foreclosures. The U.S. Treasury Department’s new short sale program (HAFA) will still result in the same number of distressed properties entering the market as just completing the foreclosures to begin with would have. In fact, it may even speed up the rate that new distressed properties reach the market as the new short sales under the HAFA program will come on the market much sooner than if the properties would have had to complete the foreclosure process.
Locally, a continued and increasing flow of distressed properties entering the local real estate market will keep inventory levels very high and further depress market prices during 2010 in the Treasure Valley. For the first time ever active distressed listings have exceeded 4,000 properties. We are entering 2010 with the highest level of distressed properties ever recorded for this area.
Idaho Data Providers not only tracks new foreclosures but also postponements of foreclosure auctions and the trend we are seeing from lenders has been disturbing. Over the last year, the lenders have been repeatedly postponing a vast majority of their scheduled foreclosure auctions.
In past years 50 scheduled foreclosure auctions on any given day locally was considered a heavy day. We are now seeing over 200 properties on the daily auction schedule more and more frequently with only a small percentage of properties actually going to sale. This has resulted in a hidden backlog of thousands of foreclosures with pending auction dates. If the lenders start allowing these properties to go to auction there could be a potential flood of new REO properties hitting the market.
What this all means is that you should brace yourself for a double dip in the housing market in 2010. Look for local prices to still fall another 7% to 10%. A bottom to the housing market and the beginning of a real recovery is unfortunately still at least one year away.
Final Foreclosure Numbers for 2009
Ada & Canyon County Notice of Default Statistics
Ada County Defaults Remain Unchanged in December
December 2009 foreclosure rates dropped slightly from that of November by falling 9% to end the year with another 630 new foreclosure starts for Ada and Canyon Counties. Overall, during 2009 there were an incredible 8,639 new foreclosures filed in Ada and Canyon counties. Compared to 2008 when what was then a record shattering 5,202 new foreclosures were filed, this is an astounding 66% year over year increase to follow up the unfathomable 216% increase in 2008 over 2007. The breakdown of the numbers between the counties is set forth below.
Foreclosure Rates Down 22% in Canyon County for December!
In December 2009 new foreclosure defaults filed totaled 214 which is an 22% drop from November. In total during 2009 a total of 3,304 new foreclosure starts were filed in Canyon County. This is a 240% increase from 2007 when only 969 notices of default were filed and a 56% increase over 2008 when 2,121 defaults were filed.
TheCalm Before the Storm! Short Sales Decline By 1.9%
We very well may be seeing the ‘calm before the storm’ as far as short sale numbers are concerned! In December there were 2,667 short sales listed on the market. This number is consistent with the number we have seen for the past six months. The coming flood of new short sales will primarily be caused by the new US Treasury Department short sale program (HAFA). This program will cause the current number of short sales to skyrocket in mid to late 2010 as all potential foreclosures must now be evaluated for a possible short sale before a foreclosure can be started on the property.
New REO Listings Up Sharply by 7.7%
After remaining virtually unchanged in November, December REOs are up sharply by 7.7% with 1,342 REOs currently listed. As lenders start shedding properties from their all time record levels of REO inventory we can expect the number of REO listings on the market to gradually increase during 2010.
Total Distressed Listings Exceed 4,000 for the First Time!
We are entering 2010 with the highest level of distressed properties on the market ever recorded for this area. The total number of distressed listings at the end of December 2009 reached 4,009. This number is an increase of 38% in only the 11 months that Idaho Data Providers has been tracking this number.
Share Your Thoughts