September 21st, 2009
Rentals in Boise: Do they pencil?
I‘ve been getting a lot of calls lately from potential buyers and investors asking that very question. Have prices of easily rentable homes in Boise dropped to a level that makes them pencil out as cash flow positive? The answer is yes…and no.
As we are all aware, the mortgage crisis and the ensuing recession have all put downward pressure on housing prices both nationally and here in the Boise market. The latest numbers for August 2009 indicate that single family home prices in Ada County have dropped 17.9% in just the last year and in many areas have dropped as much as 35-40% since the peak in 2006. The current climate of near record low interest rates, readily available credit for well qualified borrowers, and relatively low prices presents a unique opportunity for those with access to cash, whether they be seasoned investors, or those lucky enough to have saved up a nest egg. Add to this that rents, while somewhat down, have held up much better than home prices and you can see why there is renewed interest in buying rental properties.
There are many, many ways to approach this question from in-depth analysis using several different measuring criteria such as Cap Rates, time value of money, GRM (Gross Rent Multiplier), etc. to the most basic. Is there any money left each month after I make my payment and cover other expenses? For the purposes of this discussion I will only be looking at single family residences, not apartments or multi-family houses. If the answer is yes, then there is positive cash flow. Obviously, this is the most desirable scenario. However, especially in times when home values are rising, there are many investors who are willing to tolerate negative cash flow in order to build equity. I believe it will be quite some time before home prices in this market begin to significantly appreciate so it makes much less sense to look at anything that isn’t cash flow positive or at least neutral, unless you have deep pockets and lots of patience.
I spoke to Gary Stott, a loan officer with Waterstone Mortgage The Stonebrook Group here in Boise, to get a lender’s perspective. A few basic things to consider before you decide that buying a rental makes sense now:
Almost all lenders will require at least a 25% down payment to provide competitive rates.
You will also need closing costs of around 3% of the purchase price.
Rates are currently around 5.5% for this type of loan, but can change daily.
You must be well qualified.
If you currently own a rental you must have a 2 year history as a landlord for the rental income to be eligible for qualifying you for the loan. Banks will typically assume a 25% vacancy rate and deduct that from the allowable rental income.
Most lenders will limit you to a total of four financed properties (including your residence), although Fannie Mae is now allowing up to 10. However the PITI reserves required by lenders increase dramatically for 5 or more properties.
Since the property will not be your principal residence you will not be eligible for the Idaho property tax homeowners exemption. If the property you are buying currently has the exemption applied to it you will need to multiply the assessed value by the levy rate to determine what the approximate taxes will be. This information is available from a qualified real estate agent or on line at www.adacountyassessor.org
There are other expenses which should be considered in your decision such as maintenance, repairs, vacancy, and management fees (optional).
So what are the magic numbers that you should look for to find properties that will pencil? There is no simple magic formula because there are so many non-numerical variables, such as location, condition of the property, layout of the house, etc. Most importantly in evaluating the property you need to try and determine, ‘How rentable is the property and how much will it realistically rent for?’ Rentability and rents vary by neighborhood, so thorough research is important. You need to ask, ‘Who are the potential renters in this neighborhood?’ ‘What affect will things like proximity to large employers, the freeway, or schools have?’ You can also research what current rents are by talking to a qualified real estate agent, property manager, or by scanning such sites as www.CraigsList.org and www.idahostatesman.com. You can typically search these sites by neighborhood and type of house.
But is there a simple litmus test the potential investor can use in today’s market here in Boise? Depending on your investment and income goals there are some criteria that you can apply to “weed out” properties once you have determined the areas you want to focus on and what the expected rents will be. 1) Typically, the most “rentable” home is a 3 bedroom, 2 bath newer home with at least a 1 car garage. 2) Rents will, of course, vary by neighborhood, but for our purposes, $800/month is a pretty reasonable number to use.
So one easy place to start would be 3 bedroom, 2 bath, homes with a garage where the PITI (Principal, Interest, Taxes, & Insurance) payment is going to be less than $800/month. We assumed hazard insurance of $35/month ($420 annually) and taxes at $185/ month ($2,220 annually).
We figured $140,000 for a starting point. Of course these are only estimates and the actual numbers would be dependent on the specific property involved. So I researched to see if there were specific properties available in the city of Boise that would meet our most basic criteria. There were:
| Listed Price (3bed, 2bathw/garage) | Number Listed as of 09-10-2009 |
| $140,000 or less | 181 |
| $130,000 or less | 91 |
| $120,000 or less | 38 |
I had Gary Stott at Waterstone Mortgage The Stonebrook Group run some sample good-faith estimates for me to see if we could hone in on a price point that works.
| Purchase Price | Loan Amount | Interest Rate | PITI Payment |
| $140,000 | 105,000 | 5.5 | 816 |
| $140,000 | 105,000 | 6.0 | 849 |
| $130,000 | 97,500 | 5.5 | 773 |
| $130,000 | 97,500 | 6.0 | 805 |
| $120,000 | 90,000 | 5.5 | 731 |
| $120,000 | 90,000 | 6.0 | 759 |
Based on Gary’s samples it looks like at an interest rate of 5.5% or lower the purchase price cutoff is around $130,000 and if the interest rate jumps to 6% then it is closer $120,000. Of course, this is not the whole picture as no allowance was made for other expenses such as vacancy, repairs, maintenance, or management. Nor does this consider that you are tying up anywhere from $30,000-35,000 in cash as a down payment in a market where values are not expected to increase anytime soon.
My conclusion at this time would be that if you can find a well located, easily rentable, property under $120,000 there maybe some marginal positive cash flow and that if you are able to hold the property for at least 3-5 years you may see some increase in the property’s value. Given the relatively large amount of up-front cash required and the relatively low (if any) cash flow in a declining market, this is probably not the investment strategy for most. However, compared to from 2005-mid 2009, the numbers are really starting to improve. For those who are comfortable doing more detailed financial analysis of rental properties there are several web sites that offer easy to use programs to quickly analyze investment properties. www.erealinvestor.com, www.realdata.com (I suggest the REIA Lite Edition), and www.planease.com are three that I am aware of. And of course you can always seek the advice of a qualified real estate professional.
August 26th, 2009
East Parkcenter Bridge Project
For many of us who live in Southeast Boise, the new East Park Center Bridge has been an unsettling issue. What we have found in watching the project unfold is much different than some of the doom and gloom predictions that many of the opponents had suggested. The actual construction, which began in April of 2008, has progressed quite smoothly with little noise, few traffic interruptions and minimal dust and debris. The structure itself appears to be well designed to handle pedestrian, bicycle, and, of course, automobile traffic while maintaining a low profile and a minimal environmental footprint. The project is on schedule, we understand, and is to be complete this November.
One of the biggest concerns about the project is the effect it will have on Park Center traffic. While it is too early to know, it is worth mentioning that we have seen only a minimal increase in traffic while Warm Springs Avenue has been completely shut down these past six weeks as the north side intersection of the bridge, Starview Drive, Barber and Highway 21 are realigned. With the installation of traffic lights and other traffic calming features, we believe the post completion traffic count will not significantly affect our neighborhood.
Our view is that any negative effect increased traffic might have on our area is going to be offset by the positive impact Bown Crossing has brought and continues to bring. What a great thing to be able to walk to restaurants, shops and professional services. You only have to take a child or grandchild to Powell’s to be hooked! We love living off ParkCenter Boulevard with the bike path and greenbelt on either side of us and think the bridge will have little or no long term effect on the lifestyle we enjoy in our neighborhood.
July 15th, 2009
FSBO vs. Real Estate Agent
So you’ve decided to sell your home and you are tempted to sell it yourself… For Sale By Owner, FSBO, Fizbo, etc. For some, a FSBO is the way to go and they can reach all of their home selling goals. However, while a prospective FSBO’s determination and sense of economy is to be admired, have they truly considered everything involved with a FSBO and what potential disadvantages a FSBO has? There are a large number of things to consider prior to going FSBO but here are just a few:
Do you know how to prepare your house for sale?
While you may love your extensive collection of birdhouses, will it turn-off prospective buyers? That wall of memories that includes photos of every event of your child’s life? Sorry, it needs to go. Remember, you’re not selling the home you live in. You’re selling property that someone else can envision as their home. Can you make that distinction?
Do you know how to price your property properly?
It’s fairly easy to “take a shot” at pricing your property. But what if you’re wrong? If you are too high then your house sits on the market and you keep spending money on whatever advertising you decide to do. Meanwhile, the price of homes continues to drop and you chase the market price down. You may end up selling your home eventually, but what did the “chase” cost you? Maybe you price too low and you leave money on the table. Simply put, the information that a licensed real estate agent has access to is vastly superior to non-licensed individuals. Do you really want to determine the selling price of your largest asset based on partial information you may have?
Are you prepared to spend your money up front?
In most cases, the listing agent funds the marketing efforts on a listing and re-coups those costs after the property sells (we hope). A FSBO seller must front all costs. If the property does not sell then the FSBO seller simply lost the money spent. The nice thing about sales commissions is you don’t pay them until the result you want actually occurs… your house sells.
Do you know how to market your property?
It takes more than a yard sign and a Craig’s list ad to give property the best chance of selling. There are powerful promotional tools only available to agents; the Multiple Listing Service (MLS), agent tours of newly listed properties, the most widely used real estate search tool on the planet (Realtor.com), and magic selling powder. Okay, I made the last one up.
Are you prepared for the legal issues?
Selling real estate has become increasingly complicated. The days of a simple one page contract are long gone. Selling the house yourself to save some commission dollars may be a short-lived victory if you get sued after close of escrow. Do you fully understand what disclosures you must provide? What about your responsibilities to obtain work permits on improvements you have made to the property? Are you inadvertently discriminating through your advertisements? How do you protect yourself if the Buyer backs out of a contract?
Do you know how to close the sale?
Are you prepared to open an escrow account, get a preliminary title report, order property inspections, handle contingencies, and order payoff demands for your mortgage? A licensed agent takes care of all of these details for you.
Thanks for reading. Do you agree? Disagree? Think I’m an idiot? Whatever you think, please share your comments and experiences.
June 30th, 2009
Eco-Friendly Design Materials
Two weeks ago, along with several other Windermere Capital Group agents, I completed the NAR Green Designation Course. After taking this course, I can’t help but notice all the great eco-friendly materials out there. Being a self-proclaimed interior design aficionado (Is subscribing to 20 different interior design magazines too much??); here are some of my favorites.
Benjamin Moore has some of my favorite colors to use for interiors. Now, they continue to be one of my favorites with their new paint line called Natura. This interior waterborne paint offers 3500 wear-resistant hues. It is also virtually odorless, zero VOC’s (volatile organic compound), and highly washable. That means bye bye baby grime marks. This paint runs about $50/gallon. For more info, check out their site at www.benjaminmoore.com.
As most of us new, compact fluorescent lights (CFL) are not the prettiest. The coiled look is too obvious and noticeably different. GE has recently unveiled a new Energy Smart CFL that is much more stylish. It boasts a life span of 8,000 hours and costs about $8. You can even go to their website to calculate your estimated savings by using their Energy Smart CFL’s. http://www.gelighting.com/na/home_lighting/products/energy_smart.htm
Caesarstone has never really been my favorite for quartz counters, but they’ve recently added 8 new colors to their ‘09 Collection, and I must say, I am quite impressed. Within these colors there is a recycled line, a new matte-hammered texture, and the first black metallic-accent surface. http://www.caesarstoneus.com/
FLOR provides carpet tiles that use non-toxic dyes and are made from recycled materials. The best part is when you are done with the squares (or sick of them) you can send the tiles back to be recycled. You also do not need a carpet installer for the tiles. This is definitely something that you can do yourself. They are also extremely durable and come in a range of colors and patterns. I have some in my garage and love them! http://www.flor.com/
June 29th, 2009
Hispanics form considerable economic base for Idaho
Recently a business partner brought to my attention an article on Hispanics in Idaho. I found the information very motivating with today’s economic conditions. Recent studies show that Hispanics in Idaho increased in purchase power in comparison with Hispanics nationwide by a full percentage point, reaching 13.5% in 2008.
Hispanics play a large part in overall economic growth, and are increasingly becoming more important contributors to the economy of Idaho and its businesses. Furthermore, the Hispanic population grew by 5% in 2008, representing 10% of the total population in the state. Pew Research Center shows that 60% of the 10% are homeowners/householders in Idaho and rank 3rd in the nation.
The statistics show that the influence of Hispanics will continue to grow in the future, and during the current recession, will continue to contribute to the economic growth of the state of Idaho.
Source: Idaho Department of Labor & Mirada Magazine
June 17th, 2009
Coming Soon In Garden Valley
In spring or early summer, while driving home from work in Garden Valley at dusk, the traffic you have to watch out for crossing the highway doesn’t come with overpasses or merging lanes….it’s groups of elk, jumping fences, darting from one ranch to the next, going down to the river for a drink or to a greener pasture. In the last three weeks, they started calving and if you are lucky, you’ll see the little ones still with spots. Just by taking in the scenery you’ll know you’ve entered one of Idaho’s greatest playgrounds, no stoplights here, only two paved roads, one being the Wildlife Canyon Scenic Byway along the Payette River corridor into the Sawtooth Mountains.
Summer is a great time to experience Garden Valley with events to please everyone in the family. Next weekend, June 19, 20, 21 will be the first annual Payette River Experience with a mountain bike race, a whitewater festival, 5 and 10k runs, 1k family run and walk, fly fishing tournament , outdoor concert and more. Go to www.thepre.com for more information. The Starlight Mountain Theatre is also in its show season with musicals 6 nights a week all summer and a 4th of July celebration that’s nationally famous.
On a different note, the brand new energy efficient K through 12 Grade School will be open this fall. Garden Valley offers pre-school for both 3 and 4 year olds and has been awarded the “School of Excellence” award in the entire state for 1A athletes for scholarship, citizenship, and sportsmanship. Garden Valley has also just received a grant for $3 million from the Department of Agriculture to install a biomass boiler furnace for the school further reducing it’s carbon footprint. Contact marlo@windermere.com for more information.
April 15th, 2009
Market Trends March 2009- Months Of Inventory
Months of inventory is the number of months it would take for all active listings to sell, if no additional properties came on the market, at the current absorption rate or based on the number of closed sales that month. This graph shows the tremendous volatility over the last 15 months. The positive look at this is that over the last 90 days there has been a more dramatic decline. This, coupled with some of the other positive trends, could create some momentum for market stabilization in the near future.
April 15th, 2009
Market Trends March 2009- Average Price (In $,000)
Again, a clear indication of falling values with the average FOR SALE price being $295,000 at the end of March 2009 and the average SOLD price of $206,000. This is a clear indication of what part of the market is most active.
April 15th, 2009
Market Trends March 2009-Sold Vs. List Price %
This graph shows us how slow the market has been since the dramatic decline on the national economy of the last six months. There has been a 40.3% increase in the average days on market of the properties sold.
The Sold/List Price % is a very interesting data set that at times can be very difficult to understand. I believe that this indicates clearly that buyers simply did not purchase until the sellers price hit the appropriate level. Then buyers jumped off the fence and purchased.
April 15th, 2009
Market Trends March 2009- Average Price Per Square Foot
This data set clearly shows that the average price per square foot has declined dramatically over the last 15 months. This does not mean that every house has declined in value by 22.1%, but rather higher quality homes simply have not been selling over the last six months and thus the only ones that have been selling are more average in quality.
I believe we will start to see this slowly increase in the coming months and see more activity in the upper price ranges.